🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Earned $436K on Bets Predicting Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was publicly declared, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from confidential information of the event. Changing Odds in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the close of the month increased in the time leading up to former President Trump stated on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. One account, which became a member in December and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436K from a starting bet of over $32,000. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Platform data shows that users put the odds of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet these probabilities had jumped to 11% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the early hours of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in market sentiment immediately prior to the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a trade based on confidential knowledge," commented a financial reform advocate. A small number of other traders also profited large payouts from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. A new rule introduced on the start of the week seeks to ban federal workers from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with users able to wager on everything from elections to political events. This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. However it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market space. An official representative for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."