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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

Yet the current competition is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent strugglers rising in unison. Under an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still